https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3161395/was-there-china-factor-uaes-scuttling-f-35-jet-deal-us?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
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Analysts are speculating that Abu Dhabi’s move to freeze talks over a US$23.4 billion arms deal reveals a rift in US-UAE ties
The Biden administration wants Abu Dhabi to exclude Huawei from its 5G network, while US intelligence officials believe the Chinese military is building an installation at Port Khalifa
Spiking tensions between the United States and the United Arab Emirates over its close relationship with China are believed by analysts to be largely responsible for Abu Dhabi’s recent decision to freeze negotiations over the acquisition of F-35 warplanes and other advanced American weaponry.
The US$23.4 billion arms deal was approved in principle by former president Donald Trump’s administration soon after the Gulf state signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in August 2020 to normalise its relations with Tel Aviv.
The defence agreement would make the UAE the first Arab nation to acquire the F-35 stealth warplane, MQ-9B Reaper drones and other advanced American weaponry.
In a December 15 statement, the UAE embassy in Washington said “technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions and cost-benefit analysis led to the reassessment” of its plan to buy 50 F-35s at a cost of US$10.5 billion.
The two countries said they intended to proceed with the deal at a later stage. However, future negotiations look likely to be protracted.
Weeks before the embassy’s announcement, the kingdom also green-lighted a US$19 billion proposal to purchase 12 French military helicopters and 80 Rafale jets to replace its 53 ageing Mirage 2000-5 fighters.It will also reduce the UAE’s reliance on 80 US-built Block 60 F-16s delivered in 2004.
In 2011, talks over the Rafale acquisition failed as Paris refused to accept Abu Dhabi’s demands including that the warplane be continuously upgraded according to its customised needs.
Was there a China factor in UAE’s scuttling of F-35 jet deal with US?
- Analysts are speculating that Abu Dhabi’s move to freeze talks over a US$23.4 billion arms deal reveals a rift in US-UAE ties
- The
Biden administration wants Abu Dhabi to exclude Huawei from its 5G
network, while US intelligence officials believe the Chinese military is
building an installation at Port Khalifa
The Biden administration wants Abu Dhabi to exclude Huawei from its 5G network, while US intelligence officials believe the Chinese military is building an installation at Port Khalifa
Spiking tensions between the United States and the United Arab Emirates over its close relationship with China are believed by analysts to be largely responsible for Abu Dhabi’s recent decision to freeze negotiations over the acquisition of F-35 warplanes and other advanced American weaponry.
The US$23.4 billion arms deal was approved in principle by former president Donald Trump’s administration soon after the Gulf state signed the Abraham Accords with Israel in August 2020 to normalise its relations with Tel Aviv.
The defence agreement would make the UAE the first Arab nation to acquire the F-35 stealth warplane, MQ-9B Reaper drones and other advanced American weaponry.
In a December 15 statement, the UAE embassy in Washington said “technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions and cost-benefit analysis led to the reassessment” of its plan to buy 50 F-35s at a cost of US$10.5 billion.
The two countries said they intended to proceed with the deal at a later stage. However, future negotiations look likely to be protracted.
Weeks before the embassy’s announcement, the kingdom also green-lighted a US$19 billion proposal to purchase 12 French military helicopters and 80 Rafale jets to replace its 53 ageing Mirage 2000-5 fighters.It will also reduce the UAE’s reliance on 80 US-built Block 60 F-16s delivered in 2004.
In 2011, talks over the Rafale acquisition failed as Paris refused to accept Abu Dhabi’s demands including that the warplane be continuously upgraded according to its customised needs.
But President Emmanuel Macron evidently agreed to the UAE’s terms after being snubbed by Australia, which in November cancelled a US$66 billion French submarine contract in favour of vessels built with American and British technology.
Allies at odds
Like other Gulf Arab states, the UAE has been dependent on the US and other Western allies for its security since they repelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991 and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003.
The UAE has also been the US’ largest export destination in the Middle East since 2008, resulting in a US$11.7 billion trade surplus for Washington in 2020.
Allies at odds
Like other Gulf Arab states, the UAE has been dependent on the US and other Western allies for its security since they repelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991 and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003.
The UAE has also been the US’ largest export destination in the Middle East since 2008, resulting in a US$11.7 billion trade surplus for Washington in 2020.
By signing the Abraham Accords, the UAE sought to ensure the US’ continued protection amid the growing threat posed by Iran and its proxy militias in Iraq and Yemen.
But differences between them have grown over Washington’s plans to reduce its role in the regions as it shifts its focus toward containing China.
Although the US-UAE relations came under strain, Abu Dhabi’s has maintained robust economic ties with Beijing.
Bilateral trade topped US$49 billion in the first nine months of 2021, a year-on-year increase of more than 37 per cent. The wealthy Gulf nation is also home to more than 6,000 Chinese companies and some 300,000 Chinese nationals.
Another source of friction between Washington and Abu Dhabi is the Biden administration’s insistence on excluding China’s Huawei Technologies Co. from the Middle Eastern state’s 5G network, prompting public displeasure from the UAE president’s diplomatic adviser.
Although the US-UAE relations came under strain, Abu Dhabi’s has maintained robust economic ties with Beijing.
Bilateral trade topped US$49 billion in the first nine months of 2021, a year-on-year increase of more than 37 per cent. The wealthy Gulf nation is also home to more than 6,000 Chinese companies and some 300,000 Chinese nationals.
Another source of friction between Washington and Abu Dhabi is the Biden administration’s insistence on excluding China’s Huawei Technologies Co. from the Middle Eastern state’s 5G network, prompting public displeasure from the UAE president’s diplomatic adviser.
Anwar Gargash said the UAE was worried because “there is a fine line between this acute competition and the new cold war.”
“We as a small state will be affected negatively by this and we don’t really have the ability to prevent this,” he told members of the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
“We as a small state will be affected negatively by this and we don’t really have the ability to prevent this,” he told members of the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
David DesRoches, a professor at the Near East South Asia Centre for Security Studies at the National Defence University in Washington, said the US also rescinded Trump’s offer to include cutting-edge electronic warfare equipment in the arms deal.
DesRoches noted in a tweet that the UAE was well aware of the US’ sensitivities about even Nato allies’ use of the “crown jewels” of American military technology like stealth and electronic warfare.
The professor said he found it implausible that “sovereign operational restrictions” had led to talks being suspended. Similar limitations were imposed on the UAE’s F-16 fleet which it had extensively deployed to conduct air strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
DesRoches noted in a tweet that the UAE was well aware of the US’ sensitivities about even Nato allies’ use of the “crown jewels” of American military technology like stealth and electronic warfare.
The professor said he found it implausible that “sovereign operational restrictions” had led to talks being suspended. Similar limitations were imposed on the UAE’s F-16 fleet which it had extensively deployed to conduct air strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Guy Burton, an adjunct professor of international relations at Vesalius College in Brussels, echoed DesRoches’ views.
“I’m sceptical about the UAE’s public line that it’s not about China,” Burton said.
“I’ve seen some argue that the issue over the fighter jet deal is partly to do with end-use factors. But that seems a bit far-fetched, given that the UAE would have already been aware of American requirements on its equipment before the agreement took place.”
Secret Chinese base?
Analysts said the UAE’s decision to halt work on a suspected Chinese military installation at Abu Dhabi’s Port Khalifa in October after being pressured by the US further widened the rift between the Abraham Accords co-signatories.
The Wall Street Journal, citing US intelligence officials, said the facility was located in a multistorey building currently under construction at a container terminal operated by China’s state-owned shipping firm Cosco at Port Khalifa.
US intelligence on the facility was reportedly presented by Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to top Emirati officials in late September. According to the Journal, the UAE government was apparently oblivious and suspended construction work soon after allowing US officials to inspect the site.
“I’ve seen some argue that the issue over the fighter jet deal is partly to do with end-use factors. But that seems a bit far-fetched, given that the UAE would have already been aware of American requirements on its equipment before the agreement took place.”
Secret Chinese base?
Analysts said the UAE’s decision to halt work on a suspected Chinese military installation at Abu Dhabi’s Port Khalifa in October after being pressured by the US further widened the rift between the Abraham Accords co-signatories.
The Wall Street Journal, citing US intelligence officials, said the facility was located in a multistorey building currently under construction at a container terminal operated by China’s state-owned shipping firm Cosco at Port Khalifa.
US intelligence on the facility was reportedly presented by Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to top Emirati officials in late September. According to the Journal, the UAE government was apparently oblivious and suspended construction work soon after allowing US officials to inspect the site.
However, the UAE later strongly denied China was allowed to build any military facility on its territory.
John Calabrese, a scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute, said such a facility need not have taken the form of a full-blown naval base to be useful to China.
John Calabrese, a scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute, said such a facility need not have taken the form of a full-blown naval base to be useful to China.
“It is implausible that Beijing would have embarked on a project of this kind without disclosing their plans – and unlikely that Abu Dhabi, given its security relationship with the US, would have given their assent,” Calabrese wrote for the Washington-based institution in November.
He said a more realistic scenario would be the construction of a “military-relevant” facility in the form of an intelligence collection installation, likely focused on signals intelligence – which would “possibly represent an initial step in an incremental expansion of China’s military presence eventually cemented through a naval access agreement.”
Calabrese also dismissed suggestions that the Emiratis could have been in the dark about the facility’s construction until the US alerted them of its presence.
It was unlikely that China would risk damaging the relationship with one of its most strategic partners in the region by constructing such a base without telling the UAE government, he added.
“The likeliest possibility, therefore, may be that the Emirati officials might have chosen to remain silent on the issue, which is perhaps indicative of the current state of the US-UAE relations.”
Vesalius College’s Burton said he was not surprised that Abu Dhabi has “sought to downplay the China card in all of this, just as some in Washington see a reason to play it up.”
It was unlikely that China would risk damaging the relationship with one of its most strategic partners in the region by constructing such a base without telling the UAE government, he added.
“The likeliest possibility, therefore, may be that the Emirati officials might have chosen to remain silent on the issue, which is perhaps indicative of the current state of the US-UAE relations.”
Vesalius College’s Burton said he was not surprised that Abu Dhabi has “sought to downplay the China card in all of this, just as some in Washington see a reason to play it up.”
“It gets to the heart of the present dilemma that American allies and partners in the Middle East are facing, as the US puts more pressure on them to make a choice between it and China,” he said.